Unlabelled Minecraft - Rarest mob on Minecraft (At least theorically)

12/16/2017 11:12:00 am
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Minecraft - Rarest mob on Minecraft (At least theorically)

Rarest mob on Minecraft (At least theorically)

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:06 AM PST

Here you have a representation of what it would look like.

If you are just looking for the answer, then it a left-handed leader baby villager chicken jockey that can pick up items, has full diamond gear, each part enchanted at level 8, an iron sword enchanted at the same level, on Halloween and under very specific conditions. Oh, and you have just a miniscule 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001 991 202 975% to witness it. If you want to know how I got to this strange mob, and that miniscule probability, continue reading.

I was looking at some videos about rare things, like charged creepers, natural spawning iron golems, spider jokes and stuff, so I wonder what would be the single most rare mob that you could theorically see naturally spawn on Minecraft, even if it had very specific conditions. So, I came up with this.

And before starting, I don't know if this community has a place for this kind of technical stuff, but regardless I wanted help with some of the more obscure mechanics and the math behind it, so please leave a reply if you have any ideas to add.

  • To begin with, I couldn't find any information on the probability of a hostile mob being a specific one when spawned, so for the sake of maths, I will just assume all mobs that could be spawned have the same probability. Now, only counting hostile creatures, since peaceful ones spawn on a different cycle, and being on a slime chunk below layer 40, there could be sever different hostile mobs: zombies, skeletons, spiders, creepers, endermans, witches and slimes, so that makes the probability of a zombie spawn 1/7 (~14.29%). Keep in mind that I'm not using zombie reinforcements or zombie sieges since I don't know the numbers for them (If you know were I could find the formulas, please leave them in the comments <3)

  • Then, any zombie has a 1/20 (5%) of being a zombie villager, other independent 1/20 chance of being a baby zombie, and if so, they have a 1/20 chance of spawn riding on an already existent chicken. However, for the sake of making it rarer, let's say there are no chickens nearby, so the baby zombie now has other 1/20 chance of spawning a new chicken. That makes already the probability of having a baby villager new-chicken jokey a measly 1/160 000 (0.000 0062 5% or 6.25e-6%) chance!

  • If playing on medium with a Regional Difficulty (RD from now on, I'll explain it at the end :p) around 2.3 for perfect conditions (More on why medium and not easy or hard later), a zombie regardless of it's type, has a 9/400 (2.25%) chance a piece of gear, and a 4219/10000 (42.19%) additional for having full armor with four pices of gear, each one with a 1/2500 (0.04%) chance of being a diamond piece, and each one with a 3/40 (7.5%) of being enchanted with level 8. That makes an astonishing low 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 151 2% (1.512e-19%)... That should be rare enough to never see one in a lifetime, but we can get even rarer.

  • Now, a zombie on medium has a 1/100 (1%) chance of spawning with a weapon in hand, 1/3 (~33.33%) of being an iron sword, plus a 3/80 (3.75%) of the sword being enchanted with level 8. Add the obscure fact that zombies and skeletons could spawn left-handed with a 1/20 (5%) chance, and we get another 1/160 000 (0.000 006 25% or 6.25e-6%).

  • We are almost there, just three more things: zombies have a 3/400 (0.007 5%) of being a "leader" (Has more HP, is more likely to spawn reinforcements and break doors), and a 33/400 (8.25%) of being able to pick up items. The last one is a bit trickier: on Halloween, a zombie has a 9/40 (22.5%) chance of have a pumpkin on it's head, an a 1/40 (2.5%) of having instead a jack o'lantern. However, our mob has already a helmet, so why I am bringing this up? Well, if it has a 1/4 (25%) chance of having either kind of pumpkin, that means that a zombie NOT having a pumpkin on Halloween is a 3/4 (75%) chance. That leaves us with a 297/640 000 (~0.000 464%) probability.

Now we do the math and we get... and astronomically low 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001 991 202 975%, or ~1.99e-33%! To put it in perspective, the chances of being struck by a lightning in USA are approximated to 1/700 000, or ~0.000 143%. By the time you find this creature, you are expected to be struck by a lightning almost 6 times in a row. Or if you ask Google about the odds of winning the Powerball lottery in USA, it says it is 1/175 223 513, or 0.000 000 707%. You can easily win the lottery 4 times in a row while waiting for this creature.

Some more perspectice: there is a 1/10 000 (0.01%) of the title screen saying "Minceraft" innstead of "Minecraft". Finding this creature is even rarer than opening "Minecraft" and getting the secret "Minceraft" title 8 times. In a row. Zombies have a 17/200 chance of giving a iron ingot as a drop, so if you killed 29 zombies, and each one gave you an ingot, you still are almost as lucky as the guy who finds this, but not as much.

And finally, accordingto Wikipedia, Minecraft has sold over 121 million copies as of February 2017. For the sake of maths let's say that there has always been the same number of copies, those are all Java edition, and every copy corresponds to a different person. Chicken jockeys exist since snapshot 13w49a, released on December 5, 2013. If every Minecraft player had been under perfect conditions trying to spawn this mob, having no mob cap and spawning a hostile mob every game tick, as of today, December 16, 2017, they wouldn't be near of having spotted one this dudes. In fact, they would have around a 0.000 000 000 000 000 612 847 545%, or ~6.1285e-16% to spawn one of this. So, what would be the expected numbers of years it would take just to find one of these following this method? A hundred years? A thousand tears? Well... just a bit over SIX AND A HALF QUADRILLION YEARS. Take that, No Man's Sky.

So, that's it. I'm getting lazy now, and I'm starting to questions if all this investigation was worth it, so I'm not putting the explanation of some the strange stuff right now. If someone wants it, I will explain it on a comment. But for now, put your thoughts on the comments; I would like to share this week long investigation and find even more rare stuff :)

submitted by /u/GNiko324
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Aman, the immortal lands [1500x1500] - with download

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 11:02 AM PST

Ore Sheep Mod for Minecraft 1.12.2

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 06:01 AM PST

A tour of the world I've been working on for a while.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 12:05 PM PST

Bridge next to town.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 10:29 AM PST

(Likely) Final horse model is out on bedrock with some more fixes to the anatomy.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:09 PM PST

Creative server starter pack (i'm not posting this on /r/starterpacks unless you want me to)

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:34 PM PST

How do i remove water i cant seem to find the source block, I’ve been trying to add snow but its now working to freeze the water neither is the the torch method i found on youtube. Any thoughts ?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 01:13 PM PST

Before and after on ps4 survival.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 08:39 AM PST

This is the first time I'm witnessing this, although I always thought it was the other way around

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:51 PM PST

I built and ice arena. (album in comments.)

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 12:13 PM PST

I fixed quartz pillars using CTM so they're usable in building again!

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 04:36 PM PST

Here's what it looks like.

Just put this resource pack on top of the new beta textures pack and you'll be good to go. Make sure you have OptiFine installed.

Download

Enjoy!

submitted by /u/MushirMickeyJoe
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Cylinder shading hurts the versatility of a block, and hurts builders.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 12:38 PM PST

New cobblestone texture edited to be closer to the old beta cobblestone

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:15 AM PST

Minecraft Grill using New Item Frame Placement

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:33 PM PST

Found this weird looking village

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 04:39 PM PST

When you confront god.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 03:34 PM PST

Minecraft newb trying to hook up my kids with a switch. Can you experts give a Dad a hand?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 11:21 AM PST

I bought the Switch already and just thought today that I should probably see if there's a version of Minecraft for it. So, is there? If so, is it a download or a physical copy? Where should I buy? TIA.

submitted by /u/DadBod1
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[Showerthoughts] Ocean monuments are extremely well defended sponges

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 11:49 PM PST

Alternatives to Stopping Zombie Seiges

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:04 AM PST

I love villages, I love making large villages! But, currently, even good lighting won't stop a zombie siege from happening just on the border of my village.

Looking through the wiki unveiled an interesting behavior:

"If the candidate village has fewer than 10 doors, fewer than 20 villagers, or the village has not been "stable" (no doors added or removed) for at least 20 ticks (1 second), the next player's village is considered."

It seems to me that by adding or removing doors constantly from a village over the course of a night would create an "unstable" village, stopping the potential generation of zombie sieges. One way to do this is have a piston on a timer moving a block over a buried door every couple seconds to keep updating the village over the course of the night.

Has anyone tried this? It seems like a way for me to build an aesthetic village without having to calculate a wall that encompasses a radius of 0.8 times the size of the village radius. If no one's tested it then I might go run some tests myself.

Thanks all!

submitted by /u/cbeair
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Are Prismarine blocks and varieties technically organic?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 06:55 PM PST

I mean, they're obviously not real, but in game you get them from killing fish of the same texture...

submitted by /u/kestrel4747
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10k chunks on screen, shaders and x256 resource pack, 4k resolution, what pc can realtime render this on playable fps?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 04:04 PM PST

Is there a way to get green dye without cactuses?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 08:07 AM PST

I am playing on the console version and my map has no cactuses. Any ideas on how to get green dye or cactuses without creative?

submitted by /u/TheBobmcBobbob
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