Hearthstone - Theorycrafting Thursdays Weekly Discussion

12/01/2017 03:36:00 pm
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Hearthstone - Theorycrafting Thursdays Weekly Discussion

Theorycrafting Thursdays Weekly Discussion

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 04:10 PM PST

Hello members of the /r/hearthstone community,

This is a weekly thread designed for more advanced discussion regarding the intricacies of Hearthstone. Questions and answers should be focused on high-level theory crafting, such as card synergy, efficient mana drafts, and the viability of cards in certain situations.

Please keep it clean and try to add more than just a one or two word response. As the goal of this post is to increase the community's knowledge, the thought process matters as much as the answer! There is also a Newbie Tuesday weekly post, for those who wish to discuss the basics.

Note: I am a bot. Questions or feedback regarding this thread? Message the moderators.

submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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[K&C] New Paladin Legendary Weapon revealed by IGN: Val'anyr!

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 08:01 AM PST

[K&C] New Warlock Rare Card Revealed by Wolverous: Possessed Lackey!

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 04:02 AM PST

Fungal Lord Ixlid should NOT be an Elemental.

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 04:00 AM PST

Fungal Lord Ixlid is a Bog Beast, like Fen Creeper, Bog Creeper, and Loatheb. These 3 do not have the Elemental tag in Hearthstone, so Ixlid should not either. The only possible reasoning behind this choice is because Bog Beasts, as well as Treants and Ancients, are classified as Elementals in WoW. This is merely because of the small amount of impact the creature tag has in WoW, as they do not fit under the Earth, Water, Air, or Fire Elemental subcategories, nor the non-central categories of Arcane, Light, and Twilight Elementals. I hate inconsistencies, but ones relating to minion types bother me the most. Please remove the tribe from Fungal Lord Ixlid.

P.S. While you're at it, if Arfus is a Beast, Spectral Spider should be too, and maybe even Bonemare, Fossilized Devilsaur, and Unearthed Raptor.

submitted by /u/Agent_Scorpio
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I don't like how Blizz is starting to move tavern brawls towards standard mode.

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 05:39 AM PST

Call me casual, but tavern brawls are there just for crazy rules and fun games. I want to be able to use my crazy cards in the tavern brawls!

EDIT: Found this in the standard mode announcement, hope they stick to that.

EDIT 2: People seem be under the impression that I'm angry or salty with blizzard. I'm not. I genuinely like my silly wild cards and I want to be able to play them in tavern brawl, a mode built around sillyness. I don't think it should be taken too seriously!

submitted by /u/NightWolf601
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I get why blizzard doesn't want to give us a "pack ticket" for arena wins, here is my compromise

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 07:52 AM PST

They don't want us hoarding "pack tickets" for the next expansion. They want us to spend money. I get this. It makes sense from a business perspective.

But it feels bad to be forced to get packs from a set I don't need. This makes me want to not play arena, i.e. not spend money on arena. Which probably makes blizzard feel bad.

Here is my compromise. Instead of giving me ticks I can hoard let us discover a pack. This way I have some freedom but I can't try to cheat blizzard out of my pre-order.

submitted by /u/Jon011684
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Druid Legendary Reveal by Master Wang- Ixlid, fungal Lord

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:01 PM PST

Check out his stream here

Card in English

Card: Ixlid, Fungal Lord

Class: Druid

Type: Minion

Rarity: Legendary

Cost: 5

Stats: 2/4

Tribe: Elemental

After you play a minion, summon a copy of it.

submitted by /u/Zipper_Man
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mildly interesting: difference between en_US and en_GB version of cards

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 01:25 AM PST

As a software developer having a slow day at work i was doing a microproject for academic reasons (getting some experience in node.js) which i wanted to share with you guys. The goal: find differences in the international versions of the same hearthstone card. Maybe there actually are some differences between british and american card text or even the card art because of some strange chinese censorship laws.

To my surprise not a single card of the new set shows the same image for en_US and en_GB on the official HS expansion page.

However they all have the same text and art.

The diff actually looks like this for all the cards: https://i.imgur.com/gfZyrJ6.png

And upon taking a closer look, you can actually see the different lighting of the rarity gem and mana crystals, etc. (EU 2nd class players yet again)

handy gif for reverence: https://i.imgur.com/1R1iNFt.gif

You may think "what, why would they do this?"

Chances are, until now you didn't know even on non golden cards these gems are actually animated (at least i didn't notice before checking these results ingame).

My personal guess is, the images are generated by an automated process by taking a screenshot in the actual client. It is actually a good practice in software internationalization to take screenshots of every view in your app for every locale in your automated e2e tests. This way you can spot things like translated text overflowing your buttons max width or some strange bugs like the one we experienced in the last big hs patch which upgraded to the new unity version: game was working fine in american english, but all cards were a blank white in british english. When doing so, every time these images are created the animation of the card effects could be at a different frame, which would explain this effect.

other constellations i took a look at:

for those interested in the code, you can find the wooping 65 lines of javascript at https://github.com/hueftlein/hs-i18n-diff

submitted by /u/lone_tenno
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Rania goes 12-0

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 12:03 AM PST

[K&C] New Rogue Rare Card Revealed by Nalguidan: Elven Minstrel!

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 03:00 PM PST

"Most of Hearthstone isn't changing," Brode lied. "You can still play Tavern Brawls with all your cards"

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:31 PM PST

The above quote is taken from an interview Ben Brode gave to the gaming-website "polygon". That was back when the standard-wild-split was first introduced.

He made sure to point out that standard is just an additional way of playing, the split would not take anything away:

"Most of Hearthstone isn't changing," Brode said. "You can still play Tavern Brawls with all your cards and solo adventures and challenge your friends and play in wild mode. We're basically just adding a new way to play"

Why do I bring this up? Because that promise it's a lie! Out of the last 7 weeks, there was exactly one tavern brawl that I could actually use my wild cards on! This week's Tavern brawl is once again standard only! It would be fun to have all the tools to try out a new mechanic like that, but I can't use half my tools.

Wild cards are not some low-priority, second-rate cards! We were assured they would have just as much value, and indeed, they still cost just as much to buy and craft. But Blizzard isn't treating it that way!

I am still missing a lot of GvG cards, but I am happy everytime i get some new ones. But how am I supposed to cherish these cards, if Blizzard acts as if they were just some "extra" cards, little collectibles with little real usage?

If that's how you were gonna play it, you should have announced it from the get-go, not made promises in an interview assuring us we could still play tavern brawl with all our cards. (As we should, that is very much in the spirit of this gamemode!)

Edit: Despite the way the title is worded, I do not blame Ben Brode. He genuinely seems like a nice guy and I doubt it was his decision to make Tavern Brawls mostly standard by now. When he gave that interview, he simply relayed how they were planning it, and didn't intentionally mislead. But that would not have fit in a title. So please forgive me Ben, and suggest to whoever is in charge of that, that wild is not treated like an afterthought.

submitted by /u/Lawliet-Ryuzaki
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Describe a bad card but hype it up to make it sound good

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 11:06 PM PST

Example:

Troggzor the motherfucking Earthinator

1) he dodges BGH. Big game hunter ain't got shit on this boi.

2) any spell you cast? Any single spell? He summons a 3/5. Not just any 3/5, a 3/5 that fucking grows when your opponent is foolish enough to cast another spell. That's like... double value. With one fucking card. He's basically a better Loatheb, and we know how good LOATHEB is.

This motherfucker is going to CHANGE THE META

3) Did I mention that he dodges BGH? Not only that, but he has 6 fucking health. Dragonfire? Get that weak ass shit out of here. Flamestrike? Not even your ping can save you. Lightbomb? Go ahead bitch, I'll just summon a trogg before I die, and it'll hurt your board too

This scary motherfucker will straight up change the Meta on his own. Spells? You better not run them because Troggzor will come for your ass. Freeze mage? Motherfucker I don't give a shit about your shitty Blizzard, I summon 3/5s

Craft him today!

submitted by /u/phoenixmusicman
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"Yugioh Shaman": A Statistical Analysis. What are my odds of killing my opponent on turn one?

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 04:32 AM PST

Building on /u/mega544, and /u/ComboPriest's posts, I thought I would take a look at the odds of actually pulling off the combo, and dealing 30 damage in one turn.

Just to make sure everyone is up to speed.

Turn 1 going second or Turn 2 going first:
1. Play Bloodsail Corsair, Small-Time Buccaneer, or Southsea Deckhand
2. Pull Patches
3. Play Unstable Evolution on one
4. Evolve into Sorcerer's Apprentice, or Radiant Elemental
5. Evolve your other minion into a series of charge minions, and kill your opponent.

/u/mega544 listed Bluegill into Wolfrider, Kor'kron, Leeroy, Rocketeer, any 7 drop, Devilsaur, and King Krush. The odds of hitting each of these on each evolve is obviously very low, but luckily there are a few different charge minions at the 4, 5, 6, and 8 mana slots, so our odds are improved slightly! But first let's define a few things, and look at the odds at each step.

The Hand: Pulling Unstable Evolution, a 1 mana pirate, and not Patches in time to pull off the combo. 15-19%
The Combo: Evolving a minion into Sorcerer's Apprentice or Radiant Elemental, and evolving infinitely in one turn. 2%
The OTK: Getting 30 damage in charge minions pumped directly to your opponent's face. stay tuned

Now that that is out of the way it's time for a whole lot of numbers. First I am not considering the 50/50 of going second as part of the odds here, as you can simply wait till turn 2 if you go first, and pretty much pull off the same thing.

The Hand:
Here I calculated figuring you would hard mulligan for UE, as that is your lowest chance to pull. Going first you essentially get 8 draws by turn two: 3 opening hand, 3 mulligan, turn 1 draw, turn 2 draw. This gives you a 45.77% chance to get UE by turn 2. Going second you get 9 draws by turn one: 4 opening hand, 4 mulligan, turn 1 draw. This gives you a 50.98% chance to get UE by turn 1. For pirates I assume you run 2 each of the three possible 1 mana pirates (not including patches). You are better off mulliganing your pirates in your opening hand to increase your chances at getting UE (or so I assume), so in both cases going first or second you get 5 (4+1, or 3+1+1) chances to draw one. This gives you a 70.17% chance to get a pirate in time. This also means you have 5 chances at drawing patches giving you a 16.7% to draw patches. (UE*1 mana pirate)-patches= 15.45% going first or 19.1% (a 1/6.47, and 1/5.23 respectively) going second to have The Hand.

The Combo:
There are two possible minions that you can hit that give spell cost reduction, and from my count 99 two cost minions currently revealed and in standard. This gives a 2% chance at evolving into the correct minion. Ultimately giving us a combined 0.31%, and 0.38% (a 1/323.57, and 1/261.66 respectively) chance of pulling off The Combo. Just pulling this off means that you can have a pretty nice 8-10 (or 11 if your 10 drop sucks) cost minion on board by turn 1-2.

The OTK:
As /u/ComboPriest pointed out in their post you can do more than just charge at your opponent, there are several cases where you can get extra minions on board through the evolve process, or running 0 mana minions, and running 1 mana spells for extra damage. For now I will be excluding all of these and only looking at evolving one mininon to get to 30 damage. Also note that I have not included the total number of actual minions at each cost because they have not been revealed, so actually odds of pulling this off are going to be lower once the set comes out.
Getting Bluegill into Wolfrider, Kor'kron, Leeroy, Rocketeer, Devilsaur, and King Krush as /u/mega544 suggested gives us a 1/2,657,790,000,000 chance at getting these exact minions on each evolve.
But there is more than one possible way to get 30 damage from charge minions. By my count there are 68 combinations of 14 different charge minions that can get you to 30 damage. There are 8 different categories of charge minion groupings each with different odds of occurring: 1 of each minion from 2-9(no 7),no 6 drop, no 5 drop, no 4 drop, no 2 drop, no 2 or 4 drop, no 3 drop, and no 2 or 3 drop.
Totaled and added together, multiplied by the odds of pulling off The Combo we get our final odds of:
1/13,456,104,859 going first, and 1/10,881,232,821 going second to kill your opponent from two mana.

Here is the excel doc I have been working out of. It's a mess, but you can check my work, I probably got something wrong (or all of it who knows).

submitted by /u/Youseikun
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Can we have access to flavor texts when opening packs?

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 02:17 AM PST

With the next expansion around the corner I wish that we would one day (at least on pc, but why not on mobile...) be able to hover over cards we open in packs to display their flavor texts. It would make opening day much more exciting as one tends to know a lot of the cards already but not their flavor texts.

I always visit the collection afterwards to scroll through them which is fine I guess. Yet I imagine it would be much nicer when I open that new epic later in the expansion and I can just directly view its flavor text.

To me at least, it would make opening packs more flavorful (get it?) and it doesn't sound like a lot of work.

Anyone else feel the same?

submitted by /u/LaMiaZeaLot
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Dog's Kobolds and Catacombs Card Reveal(s)!

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:01 PM PST

Since we are in the middle of the reveal season once again, here is the DT about Prince Keleseth. Arguably the strongest card of KotFT, proclaimed trash by (almost) everyone!

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 04:04 PM PST

vS Data Reaper Report #72

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 09:00 AM PST

Greetings!

The Vicious Syndicate Team is proud to present the 72nd edition of the Data Reaper Report.

As always, a special thanks to all those who contribute their game data to the project. This project could not succeed without your support. The entire vS Team is eternally grateful for your assistance.

This week our data is based off of over 3,800 contributors and over 65,000 games! In this week's report you will find:

  • Deck Library - Decklists & Class/Archetype Radars

  • Class/Archetype Distribution Over All Games

  • Class/Archetype Distribution "By Rank" Games

  • Class Frequency over previous 72 Weeks

  • Class Frequency by Day

  • Interactive Matchup Win-Rate Chart

  • vS Power Rankings

  • Analysis/Discussion of each Class

  • Meta Breaker of the Week

The full article can be found at: vS Data Reaper Report #72

Data Reaper Live - After you're done with the Report, you can keep an eye on this up-to-date live Meta Tracker throughout the week!

As always, thank you all for your fantastic feedback and support. We are looking forward to all the additional content we can provide everyone.

Reminder

  • If you haven't already, please sign up to contribute your game data! The more contributors we have the more accurate our data! More data will allow us to answer some more interesting questions. We can now track games with either Track-o-Bot or Hearthstone Deck Tracker. Sign up here, and follow the instructions.

Thank you,

The Vicious Syndicate Team

submitted by /u/ViciousSyndicate
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Summon an Even Larger Voidman

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:05 PM PST

Just to say: They revealed only 11/49 commons (~22%)

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 11:17 PM PST

By looking at the chart, we currently got:

11/49 Common ~22%
22/36 Rare ~60%
17/27 Epic ~66%
16/23 Legendary ~70%

on 70/135 cards ~52%.
As they decided to not get them revealed by the community yet, there is a high chance that you have to prepare yourself to see a bunch of PackFillers during the last reveal stream.

I still hope a few of them will be interesting and there will be no [[Bonemare]]-like cards.
Apart from that, really enjoying the flow for this reveal season. Please keep it as it is!

submitted by /u/Goutye
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Five easy tips to improve your K&C card evaluations!

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 02:11 PM PST

With spoiler season in full swing everybody wants to comment on the new cards. Unfortunately, this can be difficult, and if you screw up you could miss out on being able to say that you predicted whatever meta we end up with a few months from now. So, I thought I'd let people in on the secret to 100% more accurate card evaluations.

  • Just restate the card's cost and stats

This is an easy one. Does the card cost four and have five attack and five health? Just say something along the lines of "This is a four mana 5/5." This is pretty insightful commentary since the only thing that actually matters in hearthstone are raw stats.

  • Compare it to a similar card and then blame blizzard

This one is a little more complicated. First, find a card that is basically identical to the one you're looking at. Then, if it's better talk about powercreep, and say something like "[old garbage card] sheds a tear." If it's worse, just talk about how blizzard hates whatever class it's for.

  • Ignore the card and talk about how OP a current tier 1 deck will be

You can pretty much do this for anything (as long as it doesn't go in a current tier 1 deck). This technique lets you get around the difficulty of talking about how good a class will be given its new cards. Instead, you just talk about something that everyone already knows, and you get to feel smarter than all the people trying to theorize new decks. Easy win-win.

  • Talk about how the deck it goes in doesn't exist

Blizzard would have you believe that new sets change the meta and introduce new decks. This is a lie. New decks are never introduced, cards are only good when they go into existing decks. Remember, trying to "theorize new decks" or "predict the meta" is for chumps. If you can't jam the card into a deck you've already built then it sucks.

  • Dust

Most of the cards in any given set suck. All anybody really cares about when looking at sets are what percentage of cards you can guess correctly. Simply saying that a card is dust will pretty much guarantee you end up with a solid average. Remember, no one cares about situations when a card could work, or finding interesting uses for new cards. Letting everyone know how much dust a card adds to your collection is the by far the most interesting thing you can say about any given card.

submitted by /u/gert11
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What would be a nerf that a complete noob would think is a buff?

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 06:31 PM PST

Like re-stating a minion, or lowering the cost of a card by one mana, something that seems good on paper but in reality would be the worst thing ever.

submitted by /u/jnpg
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Got a sneak peak at what's in one of my K&C packs

Posted: 29 Nov 2017 01:28 PM PST

can't wait until December to open my PaReward!d! and play this golden bad boy!

https://i.imgur.com/eAu99AU.jpg

submitted by /u/Monokkel
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Holy shit, just my luck.

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 04:12 AM PST

https://i.imgur.com/XUEvgT1.jpg

>steal Replaces your deck with Discover a random spell shit.

>Get Skulked

>concede

submitted by /u/Xeasar
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Ticking Catacombs

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 12:01 AM PST

I'll do some more later, time to sleep. https://imgur.com/gallery/fhG8y

submitted by /u/MrAnfinity
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Hearthside Chat with Peter Whalen: Spellstones

Posted: 30 Nov 2017 10:09 AM PST

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