Hearthstone - Mulligan Luck in the Arena: How 1-drops influence winrates (280k games analyzed)


Mulligan Luck in the Arena: How 1-drops influence winrates (280k games analyzed)

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 07:27 AM PST

As a now filthy casual who occasionally binges... this game is 100% built with casual players as the target. Full stop.

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 05:40 PM PST

I've been playing HS off and on since release. There have been periods of time when I've dove in headfirst like this was WoW and put in 10-12 hours a day everyday.

Now - I play very casually. Do 4-5 dailies per week. Do the tavern brawl. Climb the ladder a little if I feel like it.

Play 1-2 arenas a month and that's it.

And honestly playing this way is decently fun. I never reach the point of seeing the 30th shaman in a row and so I never reach that wall of frustration which is almost inevitable after a few hours of Hearthstone. Most days when I'm playing I'm playing for quests so I don't even really care if I win or lose. Contrast this to the experience of playing 10 hours a day and the frustration of getting cheesed by shitty RNG or the sheer boredom of the same openings again and again and having the game decided by turn 5. Not a fun experience.


So what's the point of this post? It's abundantly clear, having been on both sides of the fence, that HS at its core is completely designed for casual players.

As such anyone who hopes for more depth, for more balance, for faster gold gain - I expect you will never see it from this game. It doesn't matter how much you complain. Someone at some point during the creation of Hearthstone decided that this was going to be Blizzard's foray into the casual mobile market and no matter how much backlash they receive from their core playerbase they will not deviate from this directive.

I feel like this needs to be said because there are a lot of people holding out hope that HS will become better for the dedicated player at some future point. It will not. Because it's not designed for the dedicated player. Better to cut your losses now and move on to a different game if that's the gaming experience you want.

submitted by /u/Thehealthygamer
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In regards to the talk of nerfs to this card or that card, I think Jade Lightning is just too powerful of a card.

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 06:08 AM PST

Now I'm not going to say that I know all about balance, but the amount of power in that card is considerable. My suggestion is to change it such that it can no longer go face and only target minions but that would just make a Stormcrack for 2 extra mana. Regardless of this because it summons a Jade Golem I think this downside to it is managable. Thoughts?

submitted by /u/Plakk-Karies
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Remember when turn 7 Lethal was the meme?

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 06:09 AM PST

Now a 7 turn game is a long game.

submitted by /u/Aldrein
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This Week's Tavern Brawl is: Battle of Tol Barad!

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 09:00 AM PST

Description: Magical creatures are escaping from Tol Barad! Play a minion and get a random spell of the same cost, but for free!

submitted by /u/jadearmy
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Everytime I see a bluepost or interview nowadays...

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 07:47 AM PST

Quest can be completed while challenging a friend this week

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 11:52 PM PST

Friendly Feud is making a comeback!

http://i.imgur.com/qzaCrA7.jpg

submitted by /u/2dboy_
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Overwatch just got custom servers and what seems like more balance changes to a decent amount of characters and ...

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 05:23 PM PST

We're sitting here hoping team 5 changes a couple of cards that are meta breaking. Really makes you think

submitted by /u/iamtheconsolemasterr
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I for one would like to thank Team 5 for the new Hearthstone

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 06:29 AM PST

I've played Hearthstone since closed beta. Ever since my friend threw me an invite, I've been hooked on the game.

My past with Hearthstone has had its ups and downs. I would get frustrated in GvG at Dr. Boom RNG. I would get annoyed when I got OTK'd by a Patron Warrior in BRM with giant Frothing Berserkers with Charge. I would get fed up and stop playing the game for a day or two.

But, the game was still fun. I'd still come back. And I'd buy packs. See, I've been a cash cow in Hearthstone since I installed it. Today I looked at my purchase history and counted everything. Let's say the number is greater than $2500. I have spent a disgusting amount of money on Hearthstone cards.

Actually, I think I can admit that buying packs was largely an addiction. I needed the feeling of opening a legendary. I needed to make all-gold decks for pure swag value. Onyxia Evolve deck? Sure, why the hell not, I need those cards in gold I think. Worse yet, I would disenchant a golden legendary when I thought it was irrelevant, and then re-craft it three days later when I found use for it again. I was practically throwing money at Blizzard, burning their products, and then re-purchasing them later.

I had the money to spare. I have a good job where I make good money and don't drink/smoke/do any recreational drugs. As far as addictions go, Wizard Poker packs aren't that bad.

...But after reviewing my accounts today, I noticed haven't bought a single pack of cards since December 3rd. It has been two months since I spent a penny on the game. The meta was so intolerable for me that it actually cured my pack opening addiction. I don't want any more digital cards. I don't care if I never hear the WAAAA, GOLDEN LEGENDARY sound from the Innkeeper again. Today I asked my friend to set parental controls on my account to prevent all purchases, and told him under no circumstances to give me control of my account again.

See, you might call this drastic. You might say it's one expansion. But Hearthstone has been in this steady cycle of simplification for several expansions. Never before in my life have I had less desire to play a game than I do Hearthstone. You want more casuals? Go ahead, get more casuals. I'll be on my way.

Thank you Team 5. I've never felt better about leaving something behind.

submitted by /u/TummyWummyBoy
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Hearthstone's design lately is not an abomination

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 10:52 PM PST

In basic and classic, we have the Abomination. Abominations also show up in the card art for Bite, Lightning Bolt, and Arcane Shot. Quite abomable! He's also right there on your hero power when you play miracle rogue. And when you play against the green jesus himself and sigh a relief when that totem is not a spellpower totem but just a lowly searing totem, well that totem is obliterating an abomination! How dare you compare it to a silver hand recruit!

Blizzard, knowing how abominable the game can be, then released TWO more abominations. Our favourite aggro blocker, the Sludge Belcher is one. The other one died plenty of times to mill druid in their Poison Seeds Starfall combo.

And that's the last of it. They realized that they could not make things more abominable. Standard did some minor cleaning, and no new abominations were hurt in the making of Hearthstone. All their new designs have no abominations, which means the designs have been beautiful and elegant, and thus fun. QED.

submitted by /u/Voodoohairdo
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Hearthstone in a Nutshell

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 07:45 PM PST

Most people seem to be forgetting about it, but at it's core Shaman is a weak class without a clear identity

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 06:51 AM PST

I fear for the future of our good friend Thrall. The last few expansion he has been a monster ("Shamanstone , heroes of rockbite" anyone?), but that's because he has received a lot of over-powered cards to compensate for his underlying structural weakness. Healing Wave, Tunnel Trogg, Elemental Destruction, Tuskar totemic, 2 mana 3/4, 4 mana 7/7, Thing From Below, Maelstrom Portal, Spirit Claws, Jade Claws, Jade Lighting, Jinyu Waterspeaker, etc.

You see, Shaman lacks any kind of clear identity, and that's the main issue with the class. He is either going to be overpowered (like now) or underpowered (like naxx), but rarely balanced. That's because it's defining attributes are RNG and overload, and both of them are problematic.

I don't think there is a need to explain why huge RNG is a problem. The swings become too big and victory relies on a coin toss. The hero power in particular is too unreliable for the only mechanic in the game that's suppoused to be predictable. (Mage can deal 1 damage to everything, Hunter can always deal 2 face damage, Rouge is never 100% "weapon-less", etc.) There is nothing more depressing than loosing a game because you never rolled an spell-power totem. There is nothing more enraging than loosing a game because your opponent got 3 not-actually snake taunts totems in a row, protecting him for lethal.

The overload mechanic is a balance nightmare: If the card is answerable, then it's a waste of resources that hinders your future turns (and will never be played). If the card is extremely hard to answer in time, then your opponent will have no chance of catching up (and Shamanstone will endure). Cards need to be "slightly" answerable, which is night impossible to achieve. There is also the issue of "overload finishers", when a card with overload is used to cheaply finish your opponent while completely mitigating it's downside. (7 mana 16 damage Doomhammer + Rockbitters comes to mind)

As a result, when Shaman is only viable when he excels at certain strategies with crazy strong cards or when he is the jack-of-all trades. And that's bad, because as rotations keep on comming Shaman will go back to being a trash in standard. And people will be so happy to see Shamanstone gone that they will not care about Thrall or little Morgl.

submitted by /u/Nac_oh
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Never played Shaman, Rank 14 -> 5 in 39~ games, I'm terrible, AMA.

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 05:19 PM PST

http://imgur.com/TjrYRIZ

Never played Shaman before yesterday, netdecked a top Shaman aggro deck because I was tired of losing to it. 33 Wins - 6~ Loses.

Over the course of my games I forgot to attack with Patches 5 times. Forgot to use overload to power up Tunnel Trog before I attacked 6 times. Probably mispositioned my minions more than that. Now I am rank 5. I hate myself, AMA.

submitted by /u/HeyPharaoh
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[Blue Post] Design Philosophy Behind Generated Tokens on Cards Which Can't Complete Their Effects

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 02:25 AM PST

Shaman and it's absolutely unrivaled dominance since Standard was released.

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 12:41 PM PST

I got curious. It felt like Shaman has been absolutely dominating the meta for a very long time. So I decided to go through old Tempo Storm Meta Snapshots. To my pleasant surprise, they actually have everything archived even pre-Standard as "Legacy Snapshots".

So let's break it down! How has the meta been since Standard was introduced? Warning: not very great.

Here's the final Snapshot before Standard mode arrived. Zoolock was the best deck, and Shaman wasn't even Tier 1.


Best decks per Snap according to Tempo Storm Meta Snapshot

  • Snap 01: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 02: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 03: Mid-Range Shaman
  • Snap 04: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 05: Control Warrior (Aggro Shaman still tier 1, listed as second-best)
  • Snap 06: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 07: Dragon Warrior (Aggro Shaman still tier 1, listed as second-best)
  • Snap 08: Dragon Warrior (Aggro Shaman still tier 1, listed as second-best)
  • Snap 09: Dragon Warrior (Aggro Shaman still tier 1, listed as second-best)
  • Snap 10: Aggro Shaman (Karazhan has been released)
  • Snap 11: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 12: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 13: Mid-Range Shaman "Karazhan has made the dominant decks even better."
  • Snap 14: Mid-Range Shaman
  • Snap 15: Mid-Range Shaman
  • Snap 16: Mid-Range Shaman
  • Snap 17: Aggro Shaman (MSoG has been released)
  • Snap 18: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 19: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 20: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 21: Aggro Shaman
  • Snap 22: Aggro Shaman

Firstly, the word "snap" has lost all meaning to me.

In the first few weeks of standard, a basic aggro list was compiled, which slowly evolved from a single-faceted aggressive deck to a more mid-range, versatile, and adaptive deck. The deck never left, and often times when it wasn't listed as the best deck, it was still a very close second that many players opted to use anyways.

Then, with the release of Karazhan we see Shaman becoming even stronger. It's crazy. The nerfs come out that they took so long to plan, however because of Team 5's extremely slow pace releasing nerfs, the Shaman nerfs they made are now irrelevant, as Karazhan cards can take their place. Shamanstone continued it's dominance, and hasn't slowed down for a moment since. Shaman has been a Tier 1 deck since Standard was released.


For some perspective:

Time since Shaman debuted as a Tier 1 deck: 272 days

Time it took Yogg-Saron, Hope's End to get nerfed: 155 days


I really don't understand what's holding back the developers from ending the tyranny of Shaman. Pirates are just a distraction, and if they're nerfed, Shaman will return to being the only deck at the top of Tier 1. It took Yogg-Saron, a much less dominant card that was never featured at the top of Tier 1, almost half as much time to be nerfed. How insane is that?

Anyways, those are just the numbers. When I initially decided to make this post, I had no idea that this was what I'd find. No other class has ever been this good for this long. Shaman has literally dominated the meta since Standard was dropped, and curiously it was nowhere to be found beforehand. Something has to be done, very very soon.

submitted by /u/TyCooper8
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What can be better than 5 Flamestrikes in Arena?

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 04:28 AM PST

Ben Brode, I tried Fibonacci's deck [moan]

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 11:09 AM PST

I must preface this post with the following statement: I'm not a great player. I play for fun. My highest rank is rank 4 that I achieved once on WotOG.

Ben, I tried the "ANTI META" Fibonacci's amazing deck that you named on the community address you did a couple of days ago. I just wanted to say how disappointed I am at you as head of this game to be so disconnected with the community and how your actual game is being played.

I just can't believe that your solution to the meta problem is to point a finger to a difficult and expensive deck that is heavily made to fight just aggro and that loses to everything else. Yes, I won a fair amount of my aggro match ups (when I got the correct cards and the opponent didn't) but it definitely wasn't fun. There was no strategy or fun to it. Just play my cards and pray. Literally your team not doing anything about this situation is killing my investment and my fun.

Oh and I should also mention that I lost every single one of my non aggro match ups. Reno? Out valued, Jade? too much flood to control, Dragon Priest? "secret agent coming through!" (Really who thought it was a good idea to print this piece of shit OP card? Great stats on top of amazing effect? Like are you guys even trying?)

I'm just very disappointing at the state of this game as it is. And you and your team's lack of effective resolution to problems.

Also think about your player base not about the people who are not even playing your game yet.

submitted by /u/toyladill
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After over 2 years of playing, today I got to play against my first Hearthstone celebrity.

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 07:00 AM PST

When his name popped up, I assumed it was probably just one of those accounts who have the same name. Anyway after I got absolutely destroyed by the noodle, I went to his stream and sure enough. It was him! Not the biggest news to some of you i'm sure, but it made my day. Shame I couldn't put up more of a fight and give him a good match.

Proof: http://imgur.com/a/ocMSy

submitted by /u/Captainfizzlefits
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Why I'm leaving /r/hearthstone

Posted: 08 Feb 2017 09:17 AM PST

The /r/hearthstone meta has gotten way too stale. The front page is dominated by only one archetype of posts: bashing Team 5 for making a terrible game. And the mods are doing nothing to nerf the upvote to actual content ratio of posts. I used to enjoy browsing /r/hearthstone, reading my daily top posts, sometimes even queuing into a hilarious shitpost. But nowadays /r/hearthstone's meta has become more negative than /r/meirl. There used to be a great diverse bounty of twitch clips, shitposts, and sometimes even an entire fan-made expansion. But after queuing into the same negative post for the 8th time in a row, I just can't play anymore.

(Please don't take too seriously. I saw the overwhelming negativity in this sub and had to make a post. But honestly, I was very happy playing Hearthstone until I came here and was told I shouldn't be.)

submitted by /u/Linfern0
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Overwatch just got custom games, a feature that makes no money for Blizzard, while Hearthstone.....

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 05:37 PM PST

Boss Battle Royale Recap! Boss Winrates

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 03:29 PM PST

Teched for renolock

Posted: 07 Feb 2017 11:59 PM PST

Was having some fun in wild with a renolock, which is teched for mirror matches, when I encountered a priest. Since I was just fooling around I played dirty rat on turn 3, pulling out his Ysera. The game was lost from that point, unless he would steal my Jaraxxus with his Drakonoid Operative, and to my luck he did!

Turns out it's preeetty good

submitted by /u/Partypaal
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