Overwatch - Weekly Trash Talk Thread - April 24, 2017


Weekly Trash Talk Thread - April 24, 2017

Posted: 23 Apr 2017 10:05 PM PDT

HERE YOU CAN GET RID OF ALL YOUR ANGER AND HATE.

CAPS ON AND LET IT ALL OUT.

JUST GET YOUR THIRD LUCIO PLAYER ICON DUPLICATE? GETTING PERMANENTLY KILLED BY THE MOST OP CHARACTER IN THE GAME? THERE'S TOO MUCH JUSTICE THAT RAINS FROM ABOVE? THIS IS THE RIGHT THREAD!

PLEASE STILL BE CIVIL, AT LEAST A LITTLE!

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400 hours of playing against Genji

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 12:48 PM PDT

Attack commences in 30 seconds

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 06:49 AM PDT

Jeff Kaplan: We currently have 3 maps in development, all past the initial playtesting phase that are "standard" maps (QP/Comp)

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 08:51 AM PDT

The Most Satisfying Deflect as Genji

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 02:49 AM PDT

I lagged and fell off of Lijang Tower. The streets down here would actually make for a pretty cool Control map.

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 01:00 PM PDT

This is not a Fun Experience....

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 11:08 AM PDT

Overwatch Pro's Racist Tirade Ends His Career

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 11:26 AM PDT

saw that coming

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 06:55 AM PDT

We all struggle with random heroes sometimes

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 11:10 AM PDT

How to be Selfish and Toxic with Orisa. (this was an accident)

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 08:23 AM PDT

It takes 1250 loot boxes to get all of the items and 1465 to get all of the Uprising skins too.

Posted: 23 Apr 2017 11:37 PM PDT

TLDR:

  • This simulation assumes that you use gold from duplicates and drops to buy the remaining items when you have enough. This is for all items in uprising, not skins. That is a typo in the title.

  • It takes about 1570 loot boxes to get all items currently available (normal items and Uprising) not including Icons

  • It takes about 1345 loot boxes to get all items currently available (normal items only) not including Icons

  • It takes about 200 loot boxes to get all Uprising items currently available not including Icons

  • The incorrect numbers in the title are because I though icons were common when they are actually rare. The correct numbers are in the text since I can't edit titles.

  • This is an estimation and may be incorrect.

  • cool graphs

This is an update to this post.

First, I got a list of all the items in the game from this site. Then I wrote some python code to parse it. For some reason the Json package failed to read it in so I wrote my own thing T_T. Next, I removed items you can't get or buy (default items, items that you only get from an achievement, items from preordering, and items from blizzcon).

  • Number of commons: 848

  • Number of icons: 127

  • Number of rares: 168

  • Number of epics: 233

  • Number of legendaries: 99

  • Number of event commons: 73

  • Number of event icons: 13

  • Number of event rares: 6

  • Number of event epics: 8

  • Number of event legendaries: 8

  • Number of event commons (all events): 315

  • Number of event icons (all events): 120

  • Number of event rares (all events): 51

  • Number of event epics (all events): 57

  • Number of event legendaries (all events): 31

  • total cost for normal items: 291,550

  • total cost for event items: 36,825

  • total cost for normal + event items: 328,375

I assumed the following:

  • Chance of a single item being a common: 58.39%

  • Chance of a single item being a rare 27.10%

  • Chance of a single item being a epic 5.37%

  • Chance of a single item being a legendary 2.18%

  • Chance of a single item being a rare currency 4.11%

  • Chance of a single item being a epic currency 2.43%

  • Chance of a single item being a legendary currency 0.42%

  • There is a 30% chance (1.2/4) of a single item being an event item.

  • Event item drops share the same probability distribution

  • You can get Icons but can't buy them so they don't count towards needing "all" of the items.

  • I assume you spend no gold on anything until you can buy all of the remaining items.

I do all the math by single items and then just divide by 4 to get number of loot boxes.

I call upon RNGesus to determine the rarity of the item you get and if its a duplicate. The chances of it being a duplicate are (number of items you have)/(total number of items available) for each rarity. The code goes through happily opening boxes until you finally have enough money to buy the items you don't have yet. I repeat this 10000 times and make a nice histogram of how many loot boxes you need to get everything! I did it once including normal items and uprising items. I did it again only using normal items. I did it a third time including all seasonal items which assumes Bliz will make the events an annual thing or something and that you can buy the items at 3x the cost. The results are in the first few lines of the post.

  • It takes 1400-1750 (1570 on average) loot boxes to get all items currently available (normal items and Uprising) not including Icons

  • It takes 1200-1500 (1350 on average) loot boxes to get all items currently available (normal items only) not including Icons

  • It takes 1700-2100 (1880 on average) loot boxes to get all items assuming Blizzard will allow you to buy cosmetics from past events at 3x normal price not including Icons

  • It takes 120-300 (200 on average) loot boxes to get all Uprising items assuming you start with no normal items

  • It takes 100-250 (160 on average) loot boxes to get all Uprising items assuming you start with every single normal item

It takes less boxes to get everything if you already have some items because the probability of getting gold from a box increases if you have opened more boxes. I also assume optimal gold spending (you buy all remaining items once you have enough gold for it and no other items).

All these calculations don't include Icons. I can change the code a bit and only move on once you get all the icons too. Since you can't buy icons it takes very long for some people to collect them all. This results in a tail in the histogram. Here are the results from that.

  • It takes 1500-3500 (2000 median) loot boxes to get all items and icons currently available (normal items and Uprising)

  • It takes 1200-2000 (1430 median) loot boxes to get all items and icons currently available (normal items only)

  • It takes 1800-5000 (2750 median) loot boxes to get all items and icons currently available (normal items and all events assuming Blizzard will allow you to buy cosmetics from past events at 3x normal price)

  • It takes 120-400 (220 median) loot boxes to get all Uprising items assuming you start with no normal items

  • It takes 100-350 (180 median) loot boxes to get all Uprising items assuming you start with every single normal item

  • Here are the graphs for it all

  • The strange distribution of the calculations including icons is answered here, specifically in Figure 2. There is a tail after every distribution where the people who don't pray to RNGesus are.

One more thing, gold drops are good for trying to get more items. It takes 225 more loot boxes (1475 in total) if I set the probability of getting pure gold drops to 0 to get all the normal items.

The code is here if you wanna look at it.

There may be issues with this calculation. I don't know for sure the drop rate but I know papa Jeff will release these numbers soon because of some law in china. I also don't know what kind of "pity" rules they have. Like if you open 20 loot boxes with no legendary there might be a 100% chance of the next one being a legendary to help you out. I'm also not sure if all the icons are truly random. Like if you have every single item except one icon, its gonna take a lot of boxes just to get that one icon. They may have added some pity code for that.

I forgot where I found my original numbers from but some posts have different numbers. I guess I could rerun the code with different numbers if someone wanted me to.

Has anyone gotten all of the items yet? All the non-seasonal items? Has anyone opened a large number of loot boxes and can you finally buy the rest of your cosmetics? This information could help make this approximation better

This post is a wild guess and might be totally off. Believe it at your own risk!

TLDR buy more loot boxes ^(real tldr is at the top)

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Boop Before You Leap

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 08:23 AM PDT

Pretty dope hero in HOTS.. coming tomorrow with a cinematic / hanamura map and 2.0

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 10:03 AM PDT

When all else fails, Zenyatta prevails

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 12:04 PM PDT

As a silver player I thought that I made a cool play

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 06:07 AM PDT

Teleporter Uptime is a bad metric for Sym

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 03:24 AM PDT

Problem: The teleporter can go down in as little as 10 seconds due to you and all 5 of your teammates using it as fast as possible. Not to mention, teleporter uptime tells us little about how good we are, just how little teammates are using it. Combined with the fact that you can't, in 99.9% of cases, generate enough ultimate to place another one down within 10 seconds, means we're unlikely to ever break 50% uptime as long as our teammates are using it when they respawn.

Solution: change teleporter uptime to shield generator uptime.

Justification: Shield Generator uptime is a much better metric for how well we might be doing, since the longer it stays up, the more shields we've provided to teammates. Currently there is nothing telling us how well we're doing with shield generator effectiveness.

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Original Mei was a Bounty Hunter, Frostbite

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 05:01 PM PDT

http://68.media.tumblr.com/94bf011c7621f28aa3e32285affe584c/tumblr_oowf0hhQ6f1v7m9gxo1_1280.jpg

(click the pic to zoom on it)

Wow look at this. I wouldn't mind having this for a skin for the current Mei. Rein gets different weapons for his skins, hog different hooks. Still Frostbite looks awesome.

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Overwatch team is working on subtitles for the voice lines.

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 09:01 AM PDT

Half of the data was made up in the "how many loot boxes" post. Why is it being spread as fact?

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 07:42 AM PDT

Seriously, why is complete guesswork presented as a fact currently on the front page for people to parrot in future posts. Change those values and you end up with a completely different number, that's as accurate as the one on the front page

Would have hoped someone interested in maths would put accuracy before karma, knowing that most people will read the title and heading but not the full 1,500 word post.

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Look what i've done mom!

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 10:06 AM PDT

The best feeling as Lucio is making a DPS character backpedal in fear.

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 08:31 AM PDT

Who needs DPS when there's new Lucio?

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 07:24 AM PDT

Did our Ana just...

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 01:58 PM PDT

Zenyatta Mandala

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 03:24 AM PDT

So I guess I found McCree's revolver is based off.

Posted: 24 Apr 2017 05:20 AM PDT

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