Unlabelled The Humanity, whats the toast to do? | Hearthstone Daily Report #

1/29/2017 05:15:00 pm
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The Humanity, whats the toast to do? | Hearthstone Daily Report #

The Humanity, whats the toast to do?

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 01:24 PM PST

Interesting board clear by Kolento

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 09:34 AM PST

Toast gets his board cleared... in an unusual way

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 02:24 PM PST

Nobody ever told me the memes were real

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 10:55 PM PST

NRG and Gamersensei Team Recruitment Scam

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 03:49 PM PST

Hi, if you don't know me, I am a pro Hearthstone player from Canada and I'm here to tell the story of how NRG and Gamersensei scammed several pro players out of our time for free content and pro coaches to build their platform.

How it worked:

Gamersensei sent out an email, as well as made a twitter post, about how they had partnered with NRG and were going to recruit their Hearthstone team from Gamersensei coaches. Here's a quote from the email of the requirements:

For Sensei: You must have taught more than 10 hours* on our platform to be considered. All Sensei with more than 10 hours will be compiled into a list in descending order of hour coached. Starting from the top of the list (i.e., the Sensei with the most hours coached), each candidate will be considered for recommendation to NRG eSports, until ten Sensei are selected in this way. For hours to count, they must be both booked and completed between midnight September 2nd and midnight September 30th, EST. Additionally, hours must be booked without promo code. In other words, discounted hours don't count. Finally, Gamer Sensei reserves the right to audit completed lessons - so make sure your bookings are authentic!

So I, and many others, invested at least 10 hours of our lives in September to complete the requirements to try out for Team NRG. After 10 sensei were selected, it was quickly narrowed down to 8 and there was a "Team NRG Recruitment Qualifier". I, along with 7 other players were selected to play in an 8 man bracket to move on to the final recruitment stage. I won the 8 man bracket and moved onto this NRG Recruitment finals.

After this, the recruitment finals was hosted by Amnesiac and ThatsAdmirable and the quote from the email was: Amnesiac will be picking his future NRG teammate(s) from Gamer Sensei's top Hearthstone coaches as they compete in exhibition matches!

The players in this recruitment finals were myself – Impact, Rosty, Deathstarv3, Rduong1535, FKIShadow, HotMEOWTH, LBYS (from the NRG LBYS twitter meme, recently), Dude7597, Astrogation and Dethelor in December. On top of that, I managed to win my recruitment match... but throughout all of this, up until the very last email, they didn't mention that Amnesiac would be picking his future teammates instead of it being based off of merit or play skill. So all the time spent coaching or practicing for the tournament and researching opponents basically didn't matter since Amnesiac would pick his teammate(s) anyway.

Besides all that, they said the recruitment would happen in the beginning of January, which, of course, never happened. All of the coaches are wondering what happened since none of us have heard since about this. So, minimum 100 hours wasted among us 10 coaches, definitely more from the coaches who weren't selected either and 2 tournaments later, nothing.

I turned down many team offers for the potential to join Team NRG because of how great of an opportunity it would be to be on a team with Amaz and Amnesiac. Being on a team with Amaz means that you're much more likely to get included into the Amaz Team League as well as much more likely to be included in future tournaments like the next ESL Trinity Series or Redbull Battleground team tournaments. Not to mention, you're much more likely to get noticed and invited to Invitationals that want an NRG player. I know that many other players dedicated a lot of time into this as well. After all of that, they signed no one. Nothing happened and no one's answering any questions. I sent an email to NRG and no response either. None of us have heard anything so that's why I decided to make this reddit post.

submitted by /u/ImpactHS
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An Unusual Lethal...

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 09:30 PM PST

2/3 Golden legendaries in one pack!

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 10:12 PM PST

Reynad gets outplayed

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 06:23 PM PST

Kripp's Opponent Uses Code Tempo Storm

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 11:26 PM PST

As someone who has never played Hearthstone before

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 06:30 PM PST

That banner really fits how I feel when I enter this subreddit on accident.

submitted by /u/zenithBemusement
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The Lord of Naxxramas, Kel'Thuzad, in 3D LED glory!

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 04:10 AM PST

Top Cards of the Week from /r/CustomHearthstone (01/28/2017)

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 09:05 AM PST

Album

Let me know if you think Mt. Krushmore and the Rag should've been included in this post or not, I genuinely was not sure :S Anyways, speaking of feedback, we're doing some behind the scenes talk over at /r/customhearthstone, and currently, the topic is on this weekly post. We want to know if you enjoy seeing these posts every week and what you think about them. Do you think they could be improved in anyway? Should more cards be included every week? Anything and everything; we want to know.

Last week's post.

submitted by /u/Coolboypai
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Tfw Lady Naz'Jar evolves my full board into Mimiron's head, three mechs, and...

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 11:11 AM PST

Lost a tournament match in the most unlikely of ways..

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 06:47 PM PST

Turn one lethal in tavern brawl

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 05:56 AM PST

I tried to sum up the most annoying Hearthstone card types in just two cards

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 11:13 AM PST

Recently I've come to the realization that the cards that annoy me the most when playing Hearthstone are actually variations of just two archetypes. Here is my attempt at recreating them in minion form.

submitted by /u/MissPlay
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My friend said he couldn't draw Gadgetzan so I helped him out.

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 01:29 PM PST

I started playing Hearthstone exactly 20 days ago and just hit rank 5. Other than clear addiction, here's my feelings toward the game as a whole.

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 11:43 AM PST

Edit: I looked at my download date after my first post. 1/8/2017. FWIW.

Edit2: Screenshots added because honestly, who the fuck would believe a guy with no credibility. Also, I'm rank 4 now whaddup.

http://imgur.com/a/UOV0z

This isn't my first post here. I posted before asking for some advice and seeing if there was anything I could improve upon in regards to accruing card pool. I'm still running a Jade druid build that's teched to hell to deal with Pirate warrior.

I bought the Karzakstan(That's what I will continue to call it) adventure and dusted Moroes and an Illidan I pulled so I could have the dust for Aya.(I had already crafted Fandral)

I bought the welcoming gift and pulled Jarax....he continues to mock me and my insufficient card pool from a distance.

Initially I crafted the C'thun support and climbed to 14-15. I realized real quickly that a slow deck in a fast meta is not the path to success. I had been grinding arena with all of the gold I was earning so I had a ton of the Jade support already so I went ahead and built a pretty standard poor man's Jade druid.

It climbed me a grand total of 2 rank, Topping me out at 12. In this time I learned to despise Pirate Warrior. After falling back down to 14 I had an epiphany. Raven Idol is a bad card right now. It doesn't help you win a single bad matchup and it only makes your other matchups MORE favorable. In other card games it seems like what we'd refer to as a "Win more" card. It rarely got me out of a jam while playing from behind but it would further solidify my advantage while playing from ahead.

Jade druid does not play ahead of many things in this meta, especially not against its bad matchups so I had to drop the raven idols. I geared the deck to deal with aggro while still retaining the ability to go later than control.

This made the difference. I climbed from 14 to 10, topping out at 8. I made some more changes. Crafted a Thalnos and dropped a Wild growth for him(Unfathomable, I know.)

Climbed to rank 5 this morning and still rising.

The meta.....I really dislike aggro Shaman and Shaman in general. Pirate warrior can be punished. If you survive the early onslaught you do so at the expense of all of their resources and you basically win the game via attrition. This is not an achievable goal against either aggro or midrange Shaman. You expend your removal early thinking that it's a fucking aggro shaman and you've absolutely screwed yourself. You attempt to conserve it thinking that it's mid range and you take 12 to the face via Flametongue totem. I had initially pegged Pirate Warrior as the menace of my life, but after losing so many games to what honestly feels like a scarier version of Pirate warrior(they hit you in the face like Pirate Warrior......but they also KEEP hitting you in the face.) Shaman is definitely the deck that is the bane of my existence.

On the other hand, Miracle Rogue is so fun to play, and not really at all fun to play against but still infinitely more tolerable than anything shaman. Sure, I can play a short game of Solitaire during one of their turns, but I've won games before because they couldn't finish their "miracle" turn before the timer expired. If I had to choose between losing turn 6 and being able to take a bathroom break during another deck's turn I'd always choose the latter.

Nothing else is really frustrating to play against except OTK priest. And it's not even like it takes you by surprise, it just brings me back to my Yu-gi-oh playing PTSD FTK days where every turn I have to wonder...."do you have game?"

Honestly, I think I'd rather start playing the game during a polarizing metagame rather than a balanced one because there's less for a new player to process in regards of what matchups i'm facing.

Also, here's the list in question for anyone interested.

2x Innervate

2x Jade idol

2x Living Roots

1x Wild Growth

1x Bloodmage Thalnos

2x Wrath

1x Acidic Swamp Ooze

2x Jade Blossom

2x Feral Rage

2x Swipe

1x Fandral Staghelm

2x Jade Spirit

2x Nourish

2x Azure Drake

1x Burgly Bully

2x Jade Behemoth

2x Gadgetzan Auctioneer

1x Aya Blackpaw

submitted by /u/fireglz
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At Least It Wasn't Edwin

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 02:32 AM PST

ETA of 5 Legendaries in the same Pack

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 03:19 PM PST

Hello r/hearthstone!

Some time ago, during my usual lurkings I stumbled across a thread in which someone had a discussion about 5 Golden Legendaries in the same Pack and whether it already could have happened without reddit noticing it.

This made me curious my self and I did some research and calculations to determine, how likely this event could already have happened and how long it will take us to assume at least one occurrence of this event.

Sadly, I have bad news...

Short answer:

It most likely will NEVER happen!

The estimated probability that it will have happened at the end of January 2017 is at a bit less than 0.12%.

And in an extremely over exaggerated scenario it will take us about 125 years to lift the probability to 10%.

Really long answer:

In my calculations I made a lot of assumptions which can all be pretty off.

"Luckily" that all doesn't matter in the end, as even extreme changes to those assumptions in ether direction turn out to be marginal.

That said, if you find any mistakes or better data, please point it out to me!

Data

I found the following information:

With this data I thought of a way to convert that into packs:

  • With the MAU's I can estimate a growth and simulate the MAU's of all missing and future months.

  • With the income of July 2015 and the simulated MAU's in that month, I can estimate the general income per MAU.

  • With the estimated income per user and the simulated MAU's, I can make a ballpark guess of the total income of hearthstone since it's launch.

  • I then can convert that total income into already and future bought packs by guessing a more or less arbitrary conversion rate.

  • Additionally I can guess the packs bought through gold or obtained through promotions and calculate the probability.

MAU's

A look at the reported MAU's data suggests a linear growth of said MAU's.

This gives us 40,000,000 / 761 = 52,562 new users per day or 1,599,824.79 per month (I generalized the days per month as (365+1/4-1/100+1/400)/12 = 30.436875) after 31. march 2014.

Calculating MAU's for any given month with is as follows

1,599,835.74 * months + 10,000,000

where months is the number of months after march 2014.

Income per MAU and month

With this I estimated the MAU's in July 2015, in which Blizzard made reported $20 million with Hearthstone and simply calculate the income per MAU.

The end of March 2014 and the end of July 2015 are 487 days apart, or 16.0004380681 months with the generalized days per month from above.

That calculates to about 35,597,898 MAU's, which translates into $20,000,000 / 35,597,898 MAU's = $0.56183093392 income per MAU and month.

Accumulated MAU's and total income

To estimate the total income I needed the accumulated MAU's from all months, starting from release up until the wished end date.

That can be accomplished with the following function

Accumulated MAU's = (months^2 + months) / 2 * new users per month + (months + 1) * 10,000,000

The end of March 2014 and the end of January 2017 are 1037 days apart, or 34.070514795 months with the generalized days per month.

(BTW: If the linear growth from above is somewhat true, this would set the current MAU's at about 64.5 million.)

This would set the accumulated MAU's at 1,306,503,409.

Multiplied with the prior calculated income per MAU and month results to 1,306,503,409 * $0.56183093392 = $734,034,030.59

Packs

Packs can be obtained individually with money, in packs of differing sizes with reduced prices, with gold, via payed arena and via arena payed with gold.

Additionally you can get packs through quests, Brawls, expansion promotions, expansion quests and other promotional stuff.

Adding to that Blizzard is earning money not only with packs and arenas but also with alternative heroes and sometimes Brawls.

Also prices are not the same everywhere on the world.

Another unknown factor in this is China. China probably pushed the MAU counter quite hard but in relation resulted into a very poor income margin, due to (probably) lower prices and the mandatory franchise set up with NetEase.

To derive opened packs from that there have to be answered two questions:

  1. How much does a money bought pack cost on average?

  2. How many packs are obtained without money?

To 1.:

The prices per pack range from ~$1.5 (2 packs North America) to ~$0.84 (60 packs Brazil) (I wasn't able to find something about China).

  • As I assume that the most income comes from North America and Europe the average will be somewhere between $1.5 and $1.

  • I further assume that the majority of bought packs bundles lies in the lower pack count bundles (i.e. the 7 and 15 card packs bundles, due to gift cards)

  • I further more assume that expansion prepurchase bundles have a noticeable impact (~$1 per pack)

  • I further "even more" assume that buying packs via Amazon should also be pretty popular but lower the income per pack for Blizzard due to the promotion discounts and Amazon most likely keeping their part.

This leads me to assume that without Amazon the average price per pack should be in the ballpark of $1.2 - $1.3. With Amazon I guess this assumption to be nearer to its lower end, which would set the average price per pack to $1.20.

This translates to $734,034,030.59 / $1.2 = 611,695,025 bought packs.

To 2.:

With napkin math over the available free packs quests for starting players and expansions I will assume the following:

Even though the growth of MAU's only represent the delta of the player count from month to month and not the delta of newly created accounts from month to month (which will be higher as players come and go!) I should be able to misuse the number of MAU's to guess the number of finished beginner quests and still be somewhat in the realm of reality as not every account will have beaten them and not everyone will have spend the gold from those quests into packs or arena.

There are 7 beginner quests from which 4 directly gives you a pack ("Win 5 Practice Games", "First Blood", "Level Up" and "Enter The Arena") and 3 that each give you 100 gold ("The Duelist", "Ready to Go!" and "Crushed Them All!").

With guessed ~64,507,227 MAU's in January 2017 this would lead to ~451,550,591 worth of free packs.

Additionally there where some promotion quests for WotoG and MSoG.

If we take the guessed MAU's during the first month of the releases and just assume that number of completed promotion quests we get

  • WotoG: ~51,599,836 MAU's in May 2016 with 13 card packs through 3 quests which sum up to 670,797,865 free packs.

  • MSoG: ~62,848,193 MAU's in December 2016 with 6 card packs through 3 quests which sum up to 377,089,159 free packs.

This sets the total sum of free packs through promotional quests to about 1,499,437,615.

The only thing missing now is the number of packs bought through non-promotion gold.

This is the part where I am a bit lost as there is no info about that.

But what I would like to think is that the number of bought packs through gold equals to about the double amount of the current MAU's.

My idea relies on the geometrical infinite series 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + ... which converges against 2.

This would add another 129,014,455 and would result in 1,628,452,070 f2p packs.

Together with the money packs this sums up to 2,240,147,095 potentially opened packs.

The Probability

It calculates as follows

1 - (1 - 0,00355 )2,240,147,095 = 0.1175937493%

The optimistic Future 1

I will arbitrarily guess the peak MAU's at 100,000,000.

With a constant growth rate Hearthstone will reach that number on the 7th of November in 2018.

All the assumptions from before will then amount in 1,474,369,678 bought packs through money.

At this point I need to make another assumption: Regular expansion releases.

The latest expansion gap was 219 days which translates into about 5/3 expansions per year.

Also I will assume that the expansion promotion pack quests stay at 6 packs.

Until the 7th of November in 2018 there will then be 3 more expansions:

    1. Jun. 2017: 73,991,426 MAU's, 443,948,554 free packs.
    1. Jan. 2018: 85,292,346 MAU's, 511,754,073 free packs.
    1. Aug. 2018: 96,435,578 MAU's, 578,613,469 free packs.

Added to that will be the double amount of the MAU's which would be 200.000.000.

All summed up will leave 4,708,123,390 potentially open packs and the probability then stands at:

1 - (1 - 0,00355 )4,708,123,390 = 0.2469870232%

So if we reach that point..."we doubled it".

The optimistic Future 2

From here on out things are easier.

Free promotion packs with constant parameters default to 5/3 expansions per year * 6 packs * 100,000,000 MAU's / 12 = 83,333,333.33 per month.

Bought packs through money default to 100,000,000 * $0.56183093392 / $1.2 = 46,819,244.49.

Packs bought through gold will be neglected, as constant 100.000.000 MAU's are unrealistic enough already.

To reach 10% probability, a value to "optimistically" claim an occurrence, we need Log10(1 - 0,00355 ) / Log10(1 - 0.1) = 200,592,508,584 pack openings.

Without those already opened still require 195.884.385.194.

Dividing that number through the obtained packs per month (130,152,577) leaves us with 1505 months or 125.42 years or the 8th of April in 2144.

submitted by /u/Awthur
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When hearthstone doesn't want you to pick warrior.

Posted: 29 Jan 2017 01:22 AM PST

https://imgur.com/27cGSH6 well this happened on the mobile app. Is it a sign?

submitted by /u/werto165
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This is 2evil4me

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 05:36 AM PST

So many 6 and oh look at that quests >:) I guess i know what blizzard wants me do to

http://imgur.com/gallery/bGPnK

submitted by /u/SirPuFFaRiN
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What hunter needs to become viable

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 05:59 PM PST

http://imgur.com/gallery/QpboK

Sadly I still ended up losing, people really need to stop netdecking in casual...

Even a 4 mana 7/7 isn't fast enough these days....

submitted by /u/lllIllllIlllll_
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Couldn't ask for a better end the work-week. Gnite everyone!

Posted: 28 Jan 2017 03:29 AM PST

I bet you've never seen this combo before. ;)

http://imgur.com/a/bw6z1

submitted by /u/JONNy-G
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