Stats & Analysis over the Solo Mid Finals The International 4

The finals were between S4 and Ferrari_430 and it was a Best of 3. The three hero’s that were to be played were Puck, Queen of Pain, and Shadow Fiend. I have pulled stats from DatDota about both players past performance, and used Dotabuff to get the stats on the games that were played; I will be going over who had the better chance of winning on each hero, as well as an analysis of the results of each game. For reference, I know who won on each game, but was not able to watch the games because of work, and I waited to watch the matches until I wrote this up. I did my best to make my past predictions without bias from knowing the results.


If you want to see the specific stats, I set up an excel sheet with all of them included. Here is the link.

For the general and Puck stats, I pulled them from after April 30th, which was the release of the Spring Cleaning update. For the Queen of Pain and Shadow Fiend stats, I pulled them from June of 2013 and after, since neither player had played those hero’s in 2014. I also only looked at the first 5 and 10 minutes stats, since Solo Mid’s are unlikely to last much longer, and it gives a good idea of the laning ability of both players..

"Would have been" Predictions

General Stats

Looking at the general stats, there is a surprising difference between the first 5 and 10 minutes between the two players. For the first 5 minutes, S4 has the advantage in GPM, Last hits, and experience per minute, while Ferrari catches up and surpasses him at the 10 minute mark. The reasons could vary, but I believe there are a few conclusions that could explain the trend. The first is the use of a Hand of Midas. Ferrari gets a Hand of Midas in about 1/5 of his games, while S4 only gets a Midas in around 1/20 games. This would help to explain why Ferrari gets a Gold and XP boost by 10 minutes, since a Hand of Midas is purchased mainly between 5 and 10 minutes. The second explanation, since Ferrari has a higher Last hit count at 10 minutes, is that S4 may tend to leave his lane more than Ferrari. If this is true, than if S4 stayed in lane, he would most likely beat Ferrari in each stat. Overall, we can assume from the stats that S4 is the better laner, giving him a big advantage in this 1v1.The only other difference, though slight, is the damage per minute. The reason this is mentionable is because it shows a trend of S4 either harassing more or fighting more. This would mean that, in a one v one situation, S4 may have an advantage if he does harass more.From the general stats, I would of predicted that S4 would win overall, since not only does he have a higher tendency to fight (or harass) enemy hero’s, but his other stats (GPM, XPM, etc.) are consistently higher than Ferrari’s in the first 5 minutes, which is huge in a one v one.

Prediction 1: Puck

To be truthful, I take one look at the stats for Puck from both players, and immediately would put my bets on Ferrari. Ferrari outclasses S4 in every category in the first 10 minutes of the game. The only way I would see S4 winning is if he takes a lead in net worth and is able to outplay Ferrari.

Prediction 2: Queen of Pain

Here is the first of two heroes’ that neither player had played since last year. Since both players haven’t played them in a similar amount of time, it’s fair to say that familiarity of a hero should not be that big of an issue.Once again, at first glance, I would put my bets on Ferrari. He beats or ties S4 in every category, except for two. S4 beats Ferrari in last hits and Damage per minute at 5 minutes. While the damage per minute does not have a significant difference, the last hits differ by 3. What this means is that S4 can farm 15 more creeps by 5 minutes (about 3 creep waves), and 30 more creeps by 10 minutes (about 6 creep waves). My prediction would have been more on Ferrari since he seems to be much more familiar with fighting with Queen of Pain (This is because of his much higher kill average), though if S4 got a gold lead, he may be able to win.

Prediction 3: Shadow Fiend

My reaction to the stats for Shadow Fiend is like the ones for Puck, but in S4’s favor. Looking at the stats between the two players, S4 outclasses Ferrari in every category. I would only bet on S4 in this match up, with Ferrari having an extremely slim chance of pulling out a win.

Results

Game 1: Puck

Game 1 was a tense game, but it showed the play styles of both players. Ferrari started with a bottle rush build, while S4 started with a Null Talisman. This Null Talisman allowed S4 to keep up with last hits and denies, though he was at a disadvantage from harass until two minutes, which was when Ferrari started going for runes. S4 was able to close the gap on gold and even got ahead by 50 gpm at 5 minutes, which just showed how well he does in laning. In the end, while both players had similar items , S4 outplayed Ferrari, catching him with a  Dream Coil while Ferrari Bottle crowed, and having a slight item advantage. The end stats of the match show just how S4 was able to make a comeback after the first two minutes of Ferrari controlling the game.

Game 2: Queen of Pain

This match clearly showed how powerful Ferrari can be with Queen of Pain. In my prediction I said the way S4 could beat him was through a gold lead. Ferrari never let S4 have breathing room to get much gold to fulfill that. Ferrari came out strong and constantly harassed S4, keeping him in the fog and delaying his bottle, which S4 didn’t get until 4:30. When S4 finally got his bottle, Ferrari had a clear item advantage, full rune control, and had S4 constantly under his tower. Looking at the hero damage can tell you the story, S4 ended with 2.1k damage to Ferrari, while Ferrari dealt 4.2k damage to S4.

Game 3: Shadow Fiend

This game was played extremely well by S4, since his laning abilities excelled over Ferrari’s. S4 constantly kept a gold lead and a CS lead, which allowed him to hit harder and get a gold advantage. The gold advantage was a major component for the last fight, since S4 got his boots first, and was able to chase down a bootless Ferrari and win the finals.

End statement

Looking at all three games, I heavily believe that S4 won because of his amazing ability to excel in the laning phase. Even during the Queen of Pain game, he was able to keep his GPM near Ferrari’s, though he had to spend much of it on extra regen. Though Ferrari lost, he did an amazing job and did not let S4 have an easy win.

I hope you guys enjoyed the stats and analysis. I know it is quite a few days after the solo tourney, but this seemed like a fun thing to do, and it was interesting to look at the stats between the two players on each hero and see their abilities just through the numbers.