Unlabelled Dota 2 - Rubick is the only semi-finalist that didn't skip first round of Arcana vote #VOTERUBICK

7/27/2017 02:21:00 am
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Dota 2 - Rubick is the only semi-finalist that didn't skip first round of Arcana vote #VOTERUBICK

Rubick is the only semi-finalist that didn't skip first round of Arcana vote #VOTERUBICK

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 11:41 PM PDT

I would love to see a short film of this

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 05:23 AM PDT

What's the point of selecting "English" if my team mates can't speak it ?

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 05:38 AM PDT

Seriously fed up with Russians on EU West who don't even listen because they literally can't understand what i'm saying...Really hard to play any role beside solo carry heroes since I can't even initiate without them realizing too late even after I ping 10 times.

submitted by /u/iAmSyther
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FiftEE/FiftEE EE mana voids Shadow Shaman giving him a triple kill / EE mana voids a creep & dies

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 09:40 AM PDT

PPD tells Nahaz how it is.

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 07:42 PM PDT

TI Tickets Up For Grabs!!

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 10:19 AM PDT

Hey Everyone! Lyrical here. I hope you've had a great couple weeks of Dota excitement with TI qualifiers, MDL, and Dreamhack. I don't know about you but I am getting super hyped up for TI.

I wanted to make sure that I was going to be able to attend TI this year no matter what so I bought a midweek and finals ticket when they came out for sale. Because I am fortunate enough to be working at TI this year I want to give these tickets back to the community as a thank you for your continued support.

I'm doing this because my entire career in Dota has been built off the back of community driven projects. I was an in-house league caster for multiple different community leagues and FPL. I raised money to buy my computer from a community fundraiser. It was a Reddit thread that got the attention of a couple of studios where I found my first professional gigs. So from me to you, whether you've flamed me mercilessly or have loved every cast you've heard, thanks for being you and I hope to see you at TI.

I don't really know how to run a raffle so to enter to win this pair of TI tickets please just like this Twitter post https://twitter.com/LyricalDota/status/890254858539868160 and I'll use a random number generator to choose a winner in 2 days. Will pick the winner on stream on the 28th at noon Pacific time and give each person 2 minutes to respond. Obviously please make sure you can transport yourself to the event and have a place to stay. I will deliver the tickets to you in person in Seattle :)

submitted by /u/LyricalGangst3r
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Level 3000 and you get a statue of GabeN please

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 01:41 AM PDT

Level (Half Life 3)000 and you get a statue of GabeN please

Edit: Front page on my Birthday, thanks guys!

submitted by /u/Decimus_
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Poor man cosplay

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 06:28 AM PDT

Roshan got a cosmetic before Oracle and Jakiro

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 09:10 PM PDT

FeelsBadMan

submitted by /u/mirakurutaimu
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Comparison of maxed TI6 courier vs. maxed TI7 courier

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 06:36 AM PDT

Your influence on winning games: a Monte Carlo perspective

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 06:07 AM PDT

People often talk about the 40/40/20 rule in competitive team games, which says that it can be expected that no matter how well you play, you will win 40% of your games, lose 40%, and only the other 20% are actually close enough that you can influence the outcome of the game. I'm sure we've all experienced times that we feel like we are playing well, and doing everything right, but we still end up losing games. Using the power of Monte Carlo statistics, we can actually simulate this effect, and come up with an estimate for the true percentages (spoiler, it's better than 40/40/20 no matter which way you view the problem).

Setup and Mathematics

The setup assumes that the matchmaking system does a good job, and that both teams are, on average, equally skilled. Now we assign to each player on both teams (except you, the player wanting to see his/her influence on the game) a random variable between -1 and 1 which determines how well they play during the game. 1 being extremely well, and -1 being a terrible game. If the overall sum or "score" over all 10 players is positive, then you win the game, your team played better than the other team, if it's negative, then you played worse and you lose.

Now if the sum over the other 9 players (since Dota 2 is 5v5, though the method is completely general) is less than -1, then no matter how well you play, you will still lose the game, since the biggest contribution you can make is a +1, which doesn't bring the total above 0. if it is greater than 1, then you win the game even if you play terribly (you score a -1). The only games where you really have an effect are games where the score after the summation of the other 9 players is between -1 and 1.

Now all of this follows logically from thinking about the setup, the only choice that could be seen as arbitrary is the way you assign how well a player is playing between -1 and 1. Surely it's more likely that people are going to play close to their normal skill level (around 0) than play extremely badly (close to -1) or extremely well (close to 1)? This can be taken into account by instead of sampling uniformly from -1 to 1, instead you sample the points close to 0 more, one such distribution that satisfies this is the Normal (or Gaussian) distribution. In my testing, I sampled both the uniform distribution and the normal distribution, of varying widths, of which you can see the histograms generated here.

Results

I performed a Monte Carlo simulation using 100,000 data points, which took approximately 5 minutes to run on a single core of an i7 processor. The results for some of the distributions are below:

Distribution Definite win Definite loss Game you can influence
Uniform 28% 28% 44%
Normal (scale 1/4) 9% 9% 82%
Normal (scale 1/2) 23% 23% 54%
Normal (scale 1) 27% 27% 46%
Normal (scale 2) 28% 28% 44%
Normal (scale 4) 28% 28% 44%

Note that the normal distribution is actually the truncated normal distribution between -1 and 1. I have also attached the probability density functions for each of the distributions here so that you can easily see the effect of the "scale" parameter. The bw in the plots is just to guide the eye by smoothing the histogram.

Conclusions

Although there is no way to formally derive the exact distribution, estimates can be made from common sense (more likely to play near your skill level), thus it can easily be seen that the impact you have on the game is much more than 20%, and is actually upwards of 40%, which was a surprising result, at least to me, considering you have 4 other people on your team! The only way to achieve a 40/40/20 relationship would be to invert the normal plots and use a plot where you are more likely to play well (or badly) than at your actual skill level, this surely doesn't make sense. Now this result only assesses your impact on the game, if you apply the same rules to yourself that I've applied to the rest of the players, you of course arrive back at 50% to win or lose.

If anyone is interest in the code I used, I can upload it no problem! If this does well I plan to cross-post it to the other team game subreddits, as it's easy to adapt the code for 6v6 or 3v3 or whatever!

TL;DR The 40/40/20 rule that determines how much influence you have to winning a game should in fact be more like 30/30/40!

submitted by /u/GeeKOllie
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Capitalist and Godz not casting main event???

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 03:24 AM PDT

Level 2000 Collector’s Baby Roshan

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 06:30 PM PDT

Sorry for what?

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 09:37 PM PDT

Hey, reddit, can we help this guy with his dream?

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 07:20 AM PDT

Nahaz Thread

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 11:09 AM PDT

Cuz everyone is flaming him right now...:/ i really like u and the work u doin! Keep it up!

submitted by /u/Motaku361
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Slacks explains why he makes an awful entry every year

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 07:35 PM PDT

Slacks' favourite entry (Dota 2 Short Film Contest) - [1:30]

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 05:33 PM PDT

Please check out this sweet Blitz storm spirit set ~<|:)

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 01:37 AM PDT

Balanced?

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 02:47 PM PDT

When OD first met GabeN

Posted: 26 Jul 2017 11:45 AM PDT

Dota 2 Update - MAIN CLIENT - July 25, 2017 | Update 2

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 06:27 PM PDT

A new patch has been dispatched for the main client. More info will be edited in as I analyze the patch.

Analysis Status: On-Going

TI7 Battle Pass

Level 2000 Reward

  • Level 2000 Reward - Collector's Baby Roshan | A Collector's Baby Roshan statue + Custom version of Roshan will replace the default Roshan | link
  • The special Roshan effect of this item expire on May 1st, 2018. | Preview

Official Changelog

  • Fixed connection issues with spectating.
  • Fixed friend's list status not updating correctly.
  • Fixed upgraded blade color on Phantom Assassin's Arcana.

UI Updates

In-Game

  • Some missing stats on the query panel have been fixed.

Frontpage

  • All Star panel has been replaced by the panel for the new Collector's Baby Roshan.

Broadcaster Tools - Unreleased

  • Like item strings added in the last patch, helpful strings for heroes have been added too. | Most likely to be used in the newcomer broadcast for TI7. For eg: Earthshaker has many ways to stun and damage nearby heroes, which can be used to chain stun.
  • Updated a bunch of the item strings mentioned in the comment above.
  • A couple of other minor UI updates to the broadcaster tools.

SILTBREAKER - Act I

  • Some localization updates in a few languages.

Related Links

  • Changelog: None yet.

Patch Size: 162.4 MB (with Tools)

submitted by /u/SirBelvedere
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GrandGranT is a gem.

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 08:34 PM PDT

Do You Really Want MORE People Spamming Sniper, Pudge and Voker?

Posted: 25 Jul 2017 02:08 PM PDT

Vote Rubick.

I don't even like Rubick. Just. Please.

submitted by /u/TheIngloriousJebs
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